MUMBLINGS August 3, 2006

The Republican and Democratic Primaries are over and most people will be glad for the respite. But politics are not over. The General Election will be in November and that will be here before you know it and we will be hearing a lot from various candidates.

This column can be filled amending the fact that so few people voted in the primaries. Less than 10,000 voted in Baldwin County, which means less than 10% of our total votes were cast.

More people voted in the County Commission race, which included Charles Gruber and Steve Kirkpatrick. Even this total was only 9,888. The next highest was Lt. Governor Luther Strange and George Wallace Jr., for a total vote of 9,469. Strange and Gruber were the winners from these two races.

Talking about the privilege of voting and democracy doesn’t seem to do any good. People will vote when they want to and have an interest in the elections, but not otherwise. So be it.

In the coming General Election, people can divide their votes any way they want to between Republicans and Democrats. In other words, you can vote between a Democrat here and a Republican there or on an individual basis.

In the state, there is going to be a lot of important offices to fill and a big fight in many of them. Not so, in Baldwin. Although there are some Democrats who are running against Republican nominees, they will probably make some fuss. This is a Republican county, remember?

The most important race will be that of Governor. Lt. Governor Lucy Baxley will be attempting to unseat Governor Bob Riley for the most important political position in Alabama.

Most people are now predicting that the incumbent Riley, will be victorious. Recent polls indicate this…even giving the present Governor almost 3-1 odds.

Of course, I do not know what the result is going to be but I can assure you that it will not be a 3-1 vote. I think it is a safe bet it would end up fairly closer. The Baxley people are claiming that Lucy will win and can give you a number of reasons why. You can rest assured they will be fighting hard to see that she does.

At this point, you can’t tell which way the state will go, Democrat or Republican. Most likely they will vote Democrat for some races and GOP in others. One thing about politics is that results depend on so many things. Even the popularity of President Bush could have some effect on the elections here in Alabama.

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The present governor is Republican but remember his predecessor Don Siegelman was a Democrat. Prior to that, Fob James was a Republican, and prior to him was Jim Folsom Jr., a Democrat.

Examples of how elections are unpredictable…Don Siegleman was expected to win re-election but was defeated by Bob Riley. Many thought Fob James would succeed himself, but Siegelman beat him badly. Nearly everyone thought Jim Folsom Jr. would succeed himself, but Fob James defeated him. Folsom told me a few days before election, he would carry every county in Alabama, except Montgomery. Guy Hunt was thrown out of office because of legal matters, as Lt. Governor Folsom succeeded him.

Republicans are also trying hard to gain control of the legislature. The Democrats have controlled it as long as I can remember and my guess is that they will control it for the next four years. Many counties are just as strong Democrat as Baldwin is Republican. Here again we will just have to wait and see.

Another highly interesting race will be that for Lt Governor where Luther Strange, the Republican nominee will be running against former Lt. Governor and Governor James Folsom Jr. Folsom had no Democratic opposition in the primaries.

There will be a lot of money spent in this race. Strange has already spent millions getting the nomination. My guess is Jim Folsom will have sufficient money to make a strong race too.

Unfortunately, money has gotten to be an important factor in politics in Alabama, as well as the country as a whole. I hate to estimate how much will be spent in the present governor’s campaign. It will be several million. Governor Riley already has enough money in hand to make the race but I am sure he can get more if needed. On the other hand, Lucy may have trouble raising as much money as she needs.

Even though we have a temporary respite, politics will be a hot subject for the next three months.

See you again soon, I hope.